Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', with a stable outlook, saying a strong record of delivering growth and improving fiscal credibility will drive improvements in structural metrics. "India's ratings are supported by its robust growth and solid external finances," Fitch said, as it forecast GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26), unchanged from FY25, and well above the 'BBB' median of 2.5 per cent.
'There are new job roles that are emerging because of AI.'
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
'...not merely in managing fiscal mathematics, but in demonstrating conservatism and prudence within that framework.' 'Looking forward, we believe sufficient growth drivers exist -- ranging from government reforms to revival in consumption to favourable monsoons. Numerous factors support the Indian economy.'
Mutual fund industry extended its bull run in 2025, adding a staggering Rs 14 lakh crore to its asset base and pushing total AUM to a record Rs 81 lakh crore by November, powered by surge in retail participation and record SIP inflows. Venkat Chalasani, chief executive officer of AMFI, told PTI that the industry's outlook remains positive, with steady SIP inflows continuing to offset foreign portfolio investor outflows and strengthening market resilience.
Inflation data, quarterly earnings and global trends will be the major driving factors for stock markets this week, analysts said. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
The prospect of protracted uncertainties in the global economic landscape not only pose a risk for India's growth outlook in 2025-26, but are also likely to dent the private sector's capital raising and investment plans, the finance ministry averred on Tuesday, cautioning the country's corporates that the era of 'easy pickings' was over.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
From Rs 73k to over Rs 1.2L between January-December 2025 -- is buying gold in 2026 still sensible?
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
Notwithstanding global headwinds, the Indian economy saw further momentum in October on the back of goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation and festival spending, as indicated by high-frequency indicators, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly State of the Economy report said.
India has ranked 131 out of 148 countries in the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Report 2025, slipping two places from its position last year.
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According to the BofA Merrill Lynch fund manager survey for October, investors are concerned that global economic recovery could falter, while emerging market confidence have started to rebuild.
Assessing where their funds are flowing gives traders a hidden edge in predicting the market direction and momentum.
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
'Deposit and lending rates have started to fall considerably. It is likely to spur investment and consumption of durables.'
'It is becoming clear that we will no longer see declines in GDP growth for the next few quarters.'
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
India is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent in fiscal year 2025 and 2026, and the country's stable growth is driven by a reform momentum supporting robust consumption growth and a push for public investment, the International Monetary Fund has said. The IMF released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update on Tuesday.
Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory this week, but may see late profit-booking amid the release of a series of crucial global economic indicators, analysts said. On the economic front, traders will closely monitor the manufacturing/ services PMI data from across regions and the US non-farm payrolls/ employment data along with consumer confidence for the month of September and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, they added.
The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
'I will not be surprised if there is a 7 per cent handle in front of the decimal place for the full financial year.'
Deloitte on Thursday projected economic growth at 6.5-6.7 per cent for the current fiscal, as tax incentives provided in the Budget are expected to push domestic demand amid an uncertain global trade environment. Deloitte estimated India's GDP growth at 6.3-6.5 per cent for FY25 and said that the economic outlook for FY26 hinges on a delicate balance between evolving trade relations and government efforts to boost domestic consumer demand.
The Adani group, which operates across multiple infrastructure sectors, with 12 listed entities in India and a combined market capitalisation of about $200 billion, remains "anchored by strong assets and robust cash flows", according to a Bank of America (BofA) report.
India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India's GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a 'severe' escalation in global trade war. "It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation," Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
Capital investment by the private sector is likely to rise 21.5 per cent to Rs 2.67 lakh crore in 2025-26 aided by robust macroeconomic fundamentals, and a 100-bps policy rate cut, according to an RBI article. Despite global uncertainties, Indian firms entered the 2025-26 fiscal year with healthier balance sheets, higher cash buffer, improved profitability, and greater access to diversified funding sources, said the article 'Private Corporate Investment: Growth in 2024-25 and Outlook for 2025-26' published in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) August bulletin.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
India's corporate bond market, driven by public sector undertaking (PSU) banks and financial institutions last year, is losing momentum since the second quarter of FY26.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh lauded 'Operation Sindoor' as a prime example of tri-services synergy, emphasizing Pakistan's ongoing recovery from the operation's impact. He highlighted the need for coordinated defense strategies and civil-military fusion to address modern security challenges.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday said the outlook for global banks for 2024 is negative as central banks' tighter monetary policies have resulted in lower GDP growth. It said Indian banks' profitability will increase further on lower provisioning expenses and robust growth in higher-yielding retail segments. "Our outlook for global banks for 2024 is negative as central banks' tighter monetary policies have resulted in lower GDP growth.
The information technology (IT) services industry may be headed for another year of sluggish growth. Based on the results of the top five IT services companies for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26), analysts say the possibility of hitting high single-digit revenue growth in FY26 looks unlikely.
Indian stock markets have experienced some ups and downs in the first half of 2025. However, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex saw steady gains, supported by a healthy economy and better corporate earnings. In this article, we will look at the detailed performance of these key indices and explore the sectors that drove the market rally.
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